Our young, on-the-water intrepid reporter, Matthew Ikeda, offers his prediction for the coming Summer.
Matthew: With a potential “El Nino” year coming, there is a real chance for a great summer of fishing. NOAA analytics suggest that the chance for an El Nino year in 2023 is over 90%. The last time such a great fishing year occurred, it was 2015 and I had just begun fishing, so I was not able to appreciate the conditions. Stories from many fishermen tell the tale, however, of an overabundance of predators in shallow waters and an explosion of baitfish. We can only hope that these conditions recur and bless us with the action for which we have waited so long.
For those of you who do not know who I am, I fish from the shore with lures, mainly for Papio and Oio. I am a catch and release fisherman 99% of the time. I try to go out a lot, so I see things that I can write up in an occasional report on this blog. With that being said, let’s get into the early summer report.
Action has been a little sluggish initially, but there have been many good signs that point towards good fishing in July and August. I have whipped for Papio a few times within the last two weeks, and while I’ve only caught a few in the 10 inch range, it is encouraging that those are willing to bite after a very bad winter of Papio fishing. There have been Oama at certain isolated spots for a little while now, although these Oama have already grown kind of big for bait usage. I assume more small Oama will come in with a second wave in the coming weeks.
One spot I know of currently has a massive mixed school of Halalu and Sardines, which might be the largest pile of baitfish I’ve ever seen. Strangely, I haven’t seen very many predators busting the pile. I also know of one other spot with a sardine pile, although not as big. There has been an early arrival of Iao in some shallow water spots, which is a good sign for the flats. It was the big schools of Iao that brought the great action onto the flats in 2015-2016. Although there haven’t been many predators inshore to feast on this abundance of baitfish, it is probably okay because June is not usually peak season. I believe that the predators will discover the baitfish soon and that we have a great Papio season upon us starting in July.
As for the O’io whipping, it has cooled off dramatically. After an amazing January-March, these past few weeks have been rather challenging, and there have been many trips where I barely escaped whitewash with a small O’io at the end. The O’io have generally been skittish and uncooperative, and the ones that I have seen seem to be aware of my presence before they are within casting range. Maybe there has just been too much activity on the flats recently? With all the dunkers, fly fishermen, and people like I, perhaps we have been pressuring the fish way too much.
El Nino brings hurricanes along with the good fishing, and don’t get too caught up in preparing for fishing that you forget to prepare a storm kit. While not guaranteed, it is likely that there will be storms formed, but hopefully they will simply miss the islands. I hope this summer is great for everyone and that there will be more than enough fish to go around. Please “fish pono” and be considerate of others, the ocean, and our finite resources. Stay safe, have fun, and good luck out there!
For those new to bonefishing, the increased wariness/skittishness of bones is part of longer term trend that has been going in since the mid-late 2000s. Stories abound of regularly picking up double digit numbers, even just randomly blind casting.
The reality is even catch and release fishing affects mortality (why proper fish handling is so crucial), and more activity on the flat will make the fish avoid those areas. For me personally, I will try to rest a spot after hitting it for 2-3 weeks consecutively. It’s tempting to return to the well, but in my experience, after 1-2 productive weeks where as a group we might hook 6-8 fish, , things usually tend to slow down. The fish wise up and go someplace else to eat. Then there is the theory about whether fish can become “educated” from being caught and released. That they can now recognize a fake morsel of food than before. I’m more skeptical of this personally due to the sheer number of fish in the waters, versus the number of fly fisherman and other CnR practitioners. There are also many anecdotal stories of fish (even very large, presumably wise fish) being repeatedly recaught, and those might just be stupid, outlier fish, but as always, sample size is always too small to draw any real conclusions. My opinion is it’s more the overall increase in activity that affects them – more things being thrown at them, more people walking around, more random “plops” in the water, and occasionally witnessing their buddies being hooked. But in the end, it is what it is. That’s why it’s better to fall in love with fishing, rather than the catching 😉
That’s a good theory, and I think that your strategy of moving spots is something that helps relieve pressure. I change spots every trip, but your idea of doing it in week “blocks” is interesting. Thanks for the insight.
I’m not saying it has to be every X number trips, and there is some optimal X number… The key point I’m trying to make is to consider resting a spot from time to time. Think of it as rotating your tires, you’re distributing the pressure rather than hammering one spot.
I have found that while the quality of fishing can decline with periods of heavy pressure, it can bounce back if things are left alone for a bit. We found proof of this with our state’s unintentional “Hanauma Bay pandemic experiment.”
Chee! I’m excited! Mahaloz for the report, Matt. Always well written 🤙
Maui report. Oaamas tricking in. Small ball about 25 total. They skiddish but once they settle down they bite. Oaamas following bait as I pull my line in. Outlook looks like July should start coming in plenty. North shore didn’t Check yet,will check next week.
Thanks for your report Craig. Oahu always seems to follow your report a few weeks later so if they come into Maui (south shore?) in early July, they will arrive at Oahu’s south shore at the expected end of July. Keep me posted as more come in, ok? And hope you get your share of papio this year.
-scott