Our young, on-the-water intrepid reporter, Matthew Ikeda, offers his prediction for the coming Summer.
Matthew: With a potential “El Nino” year coming, there is a real chance for a great summer of fishing. NOAA analytics suggest that the chance for an El Nino year in 2023 is over 90%. The last time such a great fishing year occurred, it was 2015 and I had just begun fishing, so I was not able to appreciate the conditions. Stories from many fishermen tell the tale, however, of an overabundance of predators in shallow waters and an explosion of baitfish. We can only hope that these conditions recur and bless us with the action for which we have waited so long.
For those of you who do not know who I am, I fish from the shore with lures, mainly for Papio and Oio. I am a catch and release fisherman 99% of the time. I try to go out a lot, so I see things that I can write up in an occasional report on this blog. With that being said, let’s get into the early summer report.
Action has been a little sluggish initially, but there have been many good signs that point towards good fishing in July and August. I have whipped for Papio a few times within the last two weeks, and while I’ve only caught a few in the 10 inch range, it is encouraging that those are willing to bite after a very bad winter of Papio fishing. There have been Oama at certain isolated spots for a little while now, although these Oama have already grown kind of big for bait usage. I assume more small Oama will come in with a second wave in the coming weeks.
One spot I know of currently has a massive mixed school of Halalu and Sardines, which might be the largest pile of baitfish I’ve ever seen. Strangely, I haven’t seen very many predators busting the pile. I also know of one other spot with a sardine pile, although not as big. There has been an early arrival of Iao in some shallow water spots, which is a good sign for the flats. It was the big schools of Iao that brought the great action onto the flats in 2015-2016. Although there haven’t been many predators inshore to feast on this abundance of baitfish, it is probably okay because June is not usually peak season. I believe that the predators will discover the baitfish soon and that we have a great Papio season upon us starting in July.
As for the O’io whipping, it has cooled off dramatically. After an amazing January-March, these past few weeks have been rather challenging, and there have been many trips where I barely escaped whitewash with a small O’io at the end. The O’io have generally been skittish and uncooperative, and the ones that I have seen seem to be aware of my presence before they are within casting range. Maybe there has just been too much activity on the flats recently? With all the dunkers, fly fishermen, and people like I, perhaps we have been pressuring the fish way too much.
El Nino brings hurricanes along with the good fishing, and don’t get too caught up in preparing for fishing that you forget to prepare a storm kit. While not guaranteed, it is likely that there will be storms formed, but hopefully they will simply miss the islands. I hope this summer is great for everyone and that there will be more than enough fish to go around. Please “fish pono” and be considerate of others, the ocean, and our finite resources. Stay safe, have fun, and good luck out there!